Wardono, - APPLICATION OF DECOMPOSITION METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE PERCENTAGE OF STUDENTS WHO DROP OUT OF SCHOOL TO PREDICT THE AMOUNT OF SCHOLARSHIP NEEDED IN CENTRAL JAVA INDONESIA. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology.

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Abstract

Students dropping out of school is an individual who no longer proceed or desist from his studies before the appointed time for various reasons. In Indonesia, education that is compulsory for all citizens of basic education is 9 years old. Although already issued rules for compulsory nine-year schooling on the fact there are still many individual dropouts mainly due to economic factors. The purpose of this study is to find out the forecast with some proper decomposition model for use in forecasting the percentage of students dropping out of school of Central Java the year 2018 and results forecasting the percentage of students dropping out of school level Primary School, Junior High School, Senior High School and College the year 2018 in Central Java province based on the data of students dropping out of school 2009-2017 years. The methods used in data collection method interviews, literature studies and documentation. The data used as analysis material retrieved from the office of the Central Bureau of Statistics the Central Java. In doing the forecasting the percentage of students dropping out of school in the Central Java year 2018 model Decomposition forecasting method used Additives and Multiplicative. Based on the analysis already done retrieved model Decomposition can best describe the data the percentage of students dropping out of school in Central Java that is the model of the additive value of the MAD 1,752 and MSD 4,955, so that models these can be used in predicting student dropout data Central Java the year 2018. The results of the forecast percentage of students dropping out of school in Central Java is the first forecast the percentage of students dropping out of Primary School level of 0%, second forecasting the percentage of students dropping out of school Junior High School level rate of 1.47% , third forecasting percentage students dropout of Senior High School level 32.31% and lastly forecasting the percentage of students dropping out of school of Colleges level 74.87%. The results of forecasting the number of dropout students can be used by users, planners and policy makers in education in Central Java, especially in predicting the number of educational scholarships needed in Central Java, Indonesia

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