Elvira Latifa Isnaini, 7111418070 (2022) THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE, CRUDE OIL PRICES, INFLATION, MONEY SUPPLY, AND INTEREST RATE ON THE COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE IN 2018-2022. Under Graduates thesis, Universitas Negeri Semarang.

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Abstract

The Composite Stock Price Index is one of the variables that reflects the condition of the economy in a country. In 2020, the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia declined dramatically amid the resilience of economic growth in Indonesia to global economic volatility. This study aims to identify the influence of exchange rates, crude oil prices, inflation, money supply, and interest rates partially and jointly on the Composite Stock Price Index. This study used multiple regression analysis tools to answer the purpose of this study. The data used is in the form of monthly time series data, starting from April 2018 to January 2022. The variables used are the exchange rate, crude oil price, consumer price index as an inflation proxi, money supply, and interest rate as an independent variable and the Jakarta Composite Index which is a proxi of the Composite Stock Price Index as a dependent variable. The results show that partially the rate negatively affects the stock price. This means that if the exchange rate depreciates, the Composite Stock Price Index will decrease and vice versa. Meanwhile, the variables of crude oil prices, consumer price index (CPI), money supply, and interest rates partially have a positive influence on the Composite Stock Price Index, meaning that if the price of crude oil increases, the Composite Stock Price Index will increase, as well as what happens with the variables of the Consumer Price Index, money supply, and interest rates. However, the effect of interest rates on the Composite Stock Price Index is not significant in the long run or short run. Based on the results above, there are suggestions for stock investors to enter the stock market under certain and better conditions.

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