Tias Safitri, 4111412010 and Nurkaromah Dwidayati, - and Sugiman, - (2017) Perbandingan Peramalan Menggunakan Metode Eksponensial Holt-Winters Smoothing dan Arima. Unnes Journal of Mathematics, 6 (1). pp. 48-58. ISSN 2460-5859

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the best method of forecasting models Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and ARIMA forecasting and compare the results with both methods in order to obtain the best method. The data used in this study is the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Bali Ngurah Rai Year 2010-2015. The data collected by the method of documentation by collecting secondary data and literature. The data analysis is the method of Holt-Winter exponential smoothing and ARIMA with MSE and MAPE smallest value. The results showed that: (1) the prediction using the method of exponential smoothing Holt-Winter produce model with a value of MSE 1436553590 and MAPE 8,86198%; (2) The ARIMA forecasting method produces ARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,1)12 with the transformation logarithms with MSE 1353169319 and MAPE 9,40981%; and (3) a more precise comparison of forecasting methods Holt-Winters exponential smoothing than ARIMA for produce an error value is less than the error method ARIMA

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