Agnesia Andjani, 7111417069 (2021) THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EXCHANGE RATE OF RUPIAH AGAINST US DOLLAR. Under Graduates thesis, Universitas Negeri Semarang.

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Abstract

Currency exchange rates reflect the strength of the economy as a result of penetration and the effects of the global economy. The more stable the exchange rate of a country's currency against the currencies of other countries, the more it shows the fundamental strength of the country's economy. This study aims to analyze the influencing factors that affect the fluctuation of the Rupiah exchange rate against the Dollar, including the composite stock price index, interest rates, world oil prices, world gold prices and Covid-19. The data used in this study is secondary data, using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (ARIMAX) regression analysis method with time series data from 2019-2021. The results showed that the composite stock price index and world oil prices had a significant effect on the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar. Meanwhile interest rates, world gold prices, and Covid-19 have no effect on the Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar. The coefficient of determination of Adjusted R2 in the range of 20%-21% shows that the independent variable is able to explain the effect of 20%- 21% on the dependent variable, the rest is explained by other variables outside the model. Suggestions that can be given from this research are (1) The government is expected to be able to create a conducive climate and atmosphere in order to increase investor confidence in investing in the stock market (2) Bank Indonesia as the Central Bank, is expected to be able to optimize the policy of determining interest rates in an effort to control the exchange rate. Rupiah against the US Dollar (3) Bank Indonesia is expected to pay attention to world crude oil prices in maintaining the stability of the Rupiah value (4) The government is expected to monitor the movement of gold prices in order to prevent losses that may occur in the future (5) The government is expected to be able to continue to optimize the implementation of policies regarding the spread of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia.

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